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Digital Cash in Cryptocurrency Market Plunges 13.81% While S&P 500 Surges 10.51% in Past Month

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Coinscious Market Report

by Coinscious Lab

January 21, 2019

Biggest
30d % Gain

Augur (REP)
+
135.34%

Biggest 30d %
Gain (Sector)

Data & Information
+44.42%

Biggest
30d % Loss

 Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
-33.31%

Biggest 30d %
Loss (Sector)

Digital Cash
-13.81%

Overview

Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from December 22, 2018 to January 20, 2019.

Our universe of analysis includes 51 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies, and groups them into sectors that reflect similar utility and valuation models. Through analysis of the recent historical performance of individual cryptocurrencies as well as their sectors, we provide a framework for analysis where investors can identify outperforming cryptocurrencies or sectors by comparing their performance relative to peers.

Sector
Constituent Coins/Tokens
Digital Cash BTC, BCH, BSV, LTC, BTG, DOGE, DCR, BCD, DGB
Privacycoins XMR, DASH, ZEC, XVG
DApp Platforms ETH, EOS, ADA, NEO, ETC, XEM, XTZ, QTUM, LSK, AE, ZIL, ICX, BTM, ETP
Resources SC, GNT
Payments and Settlements XRP, XLM, OMG, NPXS, MKR, PPT
Decentralized Exchanges BTS, ZRX, WAVES
Digital Content TRX, ONT, BAT, STEEM
Data and Information IOTA, VET, LINK, REP
Stablecoin USDT, TUSD, DAI

Analysis

The performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past month has been mixed, with 12 out of the 51 cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has been confined between $3500 and $3900 since January 11, and is currently trading at the low end of that range around $3600. Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 has been performing well, up 10.51% from 30 days ago and closing last Friday at $2670.71.

Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies.

Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from December 22, 2018 to January 20, 2019. Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment.

The best performer overall over the past month was Augur’s reputation token (REP), with a total return of 135.34%. The surge in price can be attributed to the announcement of the Viel platform on January 15. Viel is a peer-to-peer trading platform for prediction markets and derivatives built on top of Augur, with the goal of making Augur easier to use and more ubiquitous by making transactions faster and cheaper. Reputation is in the data and information sector, as was the second best overall performer, ChainLink (LINK), which had a total return of 59.72%. Other cryptocurrencies in the data and information sector are IOTA (IOTA) and VeChain (VET).

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was the worst performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 33.31%. Bitcoin SV (BSV) was the second weakest, with total losses of  30.32%. Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV both belong to the digital cash sector.

Cobra, the anonymous developer who founded Bitcoin.org, tweeted on January 18, “Bitcoin Cash is dead.” Cobra goes on to claim that Bitcoin Cash needs new leadership, otherwise it’ll be worth $0 in a few years. Cobra also tweeted about Bitcoin SV a little further back on January 7, saying, “Time to sell all my BSV. Worthless shitcoin.” Another high profile member of the cryptocurrency community, Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum, was also critical of Bitcoin SV on Twitter and called it “a pure dumpster fire.”

The tweets don’t appear to coincide with any noticeably large drops in either Bitcoin Cash’s or Bitcoin SV’s prices. Rather, both of them had gradual declines over the past month that fit into a longer term downtrend. However, the negative attention as a result of these tweets is unlikely to present a good opportunity to reverse that downtrend anytime soon.

Several other cryptocurrencies in the digital cash sector, namely Dogecoin (DOGE), Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Gold (BTG), and Bitcoin Diamond (BCD), also had negative returns over the past month.

Figure 2 shows various performance measures of the nine sectors as well as that of the S&P 500 for comparison and Figure 3 plots the performance over time of each sector. Performance between the sectors was mixed, with total returns ranging from -13.81% (digital cash) to 44.42% (data and information). Data and information was also the best performing sector in our previous market report from two weeks ago.

Figure 2. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, maximum drawdown, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each sector from December 22, 2018 to January 20, 2019. Less negative maximum drawdowns and more positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate

Figure 3a. Price performance over time by sectors that had positive returns between December 22, 2018 to January 20, 2019

Figure 3b. Price performance over time by sectors that had negative returns between December 22, 2018 to January 20, 2019.

Figure 4 shows the correlation between the daily returns of each sector and quantifies some of what we visually observe from Figure 3. Stablecoins had moderate negative correlation with other sectors. As shown in Figure 2, stablecoins continued to fulfill their intended purpose well by maintaining low volatility and mean daily returns near 0%, and a near zero total return of -0.73% over the observation period. As for the other sectors, despite their varying performance, they still had high positive correlation with each other, ranging from 0.77 to 0.97. This is visible is Figure 3 from how sectors often moved up or down together on the same days. The S&P 500 had little correlation with any cryptocurrency sectors.

Figure 4. Correlation between daily returns of each sector from December 22, 2018 to January 20, 2019. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

APPENDIX A: Methodology

The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from December 22, 2018 to January 20, 2019 was used for our calculations.

The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data. If there was insufficient good quality data on a cryptocurrency’s value in USD, we would instead use the cryptocurrency’s value in USDT and apply a conversion rate to turn it to USD. If data was still insufficient, then we would find the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in both BTC and ETH, then converted both into USD, and finally took the mean of those values. The conversion rates we use at a given time are the volume weighted average price of USDT, BTC, or ETH to USD at that specific time across all exchanges where Coinscious has data.

To analyze performance by sector, the prices of constituent cryptocurrencies was normalized by dividing by the price on December 22, 2018, then averaged. When calculating the daily returns using this averaged normalized price, it is equivalent to if each sector was represented as an equally weighted portfolio of its constituent cryptocurrencies formed starting December 22, 2018 and the returns of the portfolio were calculated. Returns used throughout this report refer to simple returns.

Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index from Yahoo Finance was also used as a proxy to represent the US equity market. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.

In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX B: Terminology

  • Volatility:  A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
  • Drawdown:  A measure of the decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment since the previous peak during a certain period of time. Less negative, less frequent, and shorter drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Maximum drawdown:   The maximum peak to trough decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment over a certain period of time. Less negative maximum drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Sharpe ratio:  A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
  • Correlation:  A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.

Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report.

Crypto Market Report: Crypto Markets Rally for the Past Two Weeks

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics | No Comments

Coinscious Market Report

by Coinscious Lab

January 7, 2019

Biggest
30d % Gain

  Waves (WAVES)
+99.69%

Biggest 30d %
Gain (Sector)

Data & Information
+51.21%

Biggest
30d % Loss

 Pundi X (NPXS)
-13.07%

Smallest 30d %
Gain (Sector)

Privacycoins
+0.34%

Overview

Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from December 8, 2018 to January 6, 2019.

Our universe of analysis includes 51 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies, and groups them into sectors that reflect similar utility and valuation models. Through analysis of the recent historical performance of individual cryptocurrencies as well as their sectors, we provide a framework for analysis where investors can identify outperforming cryptocurrencies or sectors by comparing their performance relative to peers.

Sector
Constituent Coins/Tokens
Digital Cash BTC, BCH, BSV, LTC, BTG, DOGE, DCR, BCD, DGB
Privacycoins XMR, DASH, ZEC, BCH, XVG
DApp Platforms ETH, EOS, ADA, NEO, ETC, XEM, XTZ, QTUM, LSK, AE, ZIL, ICX, BTM, ETP
Resources SC, GNT
Payments and Settlements XRP, XLM, OMG, NPXS, MKR, PPT
Decentralized Exchanges BTS, ZRX, WAVES
Digital Content TRX, ONT, BAT, STEEM
Data and Information IOTA, VET, LINK, REP
Stablecoin USDT, TUSD, DAI

Analysis

Cryptocurrencies are holding on to their recovery, with bitcoin (BTC) off the lows and currently trading around $4,100, maintaining approximately the same level for the past two weeks. Other major cryptocurrencies have been performing well, with 45 out of the 51 cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 continued sliding downwards, down 3.84% from 30 days ago and closing last Friday at $2531.94.

Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies.

Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from December 8, 2018 to January 6, 2019. Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment.

The best performer overall over the past month was waves (WAVES), with a total return of 99.69%. Waves was also the best performer in our report two weeks ago.

Also worth mentioning is Ethereum (ETH) the second largest currency by market cap at the moment, with total returns of 82.21%. This may be a result of the upcoming Constantinople hard fork, which will happen on block 7080000, around January 16, 2019. Constantinople is a non-contentious fork, meaning that the vast majority of the Ethereum community will be accepting the changes. The five Ethereum Improvement Proposals to be addressed are EIP 1234, EIP 145, EIP 1014, EIP 1052, and EIP 1283. Most notably, EIP 1234 will drop mining rewards per discovered block from three to two ETH, thus decreasing the supply of new ETH.

Pundi X (NPXS) was the weakest performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 13.07%. Pundi X is a decentralized payment ecosystem that uses NPXS tokens on proprietary physical point-of-sale devices.

Figure 2 shows various performance measures of the nine sectors as well as that of the S&P 500 for comparison and Figure 3 plots the performance over time of each sector. All sectors had positive total returns, with gains ranging from 8% to a little over 51% (excluding stablecoins). Out of all the sectors, data and information performed the best, with a total return of 51.21%. The data and information sector is composed of IOTA (IOTA), VeChain (VET), chainlink (LINK), and augur (REP).

Figure 2. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, maximum drawdown, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each sector from December 8, 2018 to January 6, 2019. Less negative maximum drawdowns and more positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

Figure 3a. Price performance over time by sectors that had positive returns between December 8, 2018 to January 6, 2019.

Figure 3b. Price performance over time by sectors that had negative returns between December 8, 2018 to January 6, 2019.

Figure 4 shows the correlation between the daily returns of each sector and quantifies some of what we visually observe from Figure 3. Stablecoins had moderate negative correlation with other sectors. As shown in Figure 2, stablecoins continued to fulfill their intended purpose well by maintaining low volatility and mean daily returns near 0%, and a near zero total return of 0.34% over the observation period. As for the other sectors, they had high positive correlation with each other, ranging from 0.67 to 0.97. The S&P 500 had little correlation with any cryptocurrency sectors.

Figure 4. Correlation between daily returns of each sector from December 8, 2018 to January 6, 2019. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

APPENDIX A: Methodology

The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from December 8, 2018 to January 6, 2019 was used for our calculations.

The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data. If there was insufficient good quality data on a cryptocurrency’s value in USD, we would instead use the cryptocurrency’s value in USDT and apply a conversion rate to turn it to USD. If data was still insufficient, then we would find the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in both BTC and ETH, then converted both into USD, and finally took the mean of those values. The conversion rates we use at a given time are the volume weighted average price of USDT, BTC, or ETH to USD at that specific time across all exchanges where Coinscious has data.

To analyze performance by sector, the prices of constituent cryptocurrencies was normalized by dividing by the price on December 8, 2018, then averaged. When calculating the daily returns using this averaged normalized price, it is equivalent to if each sector was represented as an equally weighted portfolio of its constituent cryptocurrencies formed starting December 8, 2018 and the returns of the portfolio were calculated. Returns used throughout this report refer to simple returns.

Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index from Yahoo Finance was also used as a proxy to represent the US equity market. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.

In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX B: Terminology

  • Volatility:  A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
  • Drawdown:  A measure of the decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment since the previous peak during a certain period of time. Less negative, less frequent, and shorter drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Maximum drawdown:   The maximum peak to trough decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment over a certain period of time. Less negative maximum drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Sharpe ratio:  A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
  • Correlation:  A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.

Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report.

Coinscious Market Report: December 21, 2018

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics | No Comments

Coinscious Market Report – December 21, 2018


Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports are planned to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from November 20, 2018 to December 20, 2018. In this report, we also provide analysis on bitcoin price movements from a technical perspective to see where the market as a whole may be headed in the near future.

Coinscious Market Report: December 10, 2018

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics | No Comments

Coinscious Market Report – December 10, 2018


Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports are planned to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from November 7, 2018 to December 7, 2018. In this report, we also provide analysis on bitcoin price movements from a technical perspective to see where the market as a whole may be headed in the near future

Coinscious Market Report: November 23, 2018

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics | No Comments

We’re excited to share our first Coinscious Market Report by Coinscious Lab. Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports are planned to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from October 23, 2018 to November 22, 2018.

Read more: Coinscious Market Report: November 23, 2018

The Coinscious Global Tour Comes to a Close

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The Coinscious team landed in Hangzhou where we made an appearance and spoke at the Consensus Ark symposium. This event was attended by Janson Jiang, our Co-Founder and CSO; David Buell, our Director of Marketing; along with members of our Shanghai team. This significant event was sponsored by CA Consensus College, One TV, and BC Incubation Commune.

Janson took to the stage and described the three core technologies of the Coinscious Collective™ platform: Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain. He emphasized how the Coinscious Collective™ platform is designed for both professional traders, as well as your non-technical average joes. Janson stressed the importance of having good insights in order to successfully trade in the coin market, but noted that there is currently a lack of good data providers. He advised that in order to address this concern, Coinscious has deployed hundreds of global servers to collect data from major exchanges and blockchains. He also announced that Coinscious has set up a laboratory with a team of top AI experts to analyze the rules of cryptocurrency. In a couple months, this data will be available to our institutional users.

In his presentation, David discussed the current status of the coin market. He explained how the bearish coin market is just a part of the volatility of an immature market. Even so, there is a lot of optimism for the coin market. Even with lower coin prices, more funds continue to move into the space and we also see that user adoption is growing year-after-year. Globally, the coin market is still in its infancy and its continued adoption by the general public will help allow it to further mature.  

On to Wenzhou

The last and final destination on our Coinscious global tour was Wenzhou! We had the great opportunity of attending an intimate and private event with 30 distinguished guests. During this event, our team introduced our Coinscious Collective™ platform and shared insights into cryptocurrency investment trends, tools, and strategies.

Janson had the honour of being a keynote speaker here, as well. During his speech, he shared his views on the current global coin market and the pain points it is experiencing. He noted that the coin market is currently in a rapid-growth stage. Inevitably, risk comes with opportunity. The main challenges for the coin market include: unpredictability of news reports, lack of useful information, security issues, multiple exchange accounts, and multi-wallet management difficulties. Janson explained that ultimately, there is a lack of big data and analysis tools that can deliver professional quantitative analysis. Together, all of these challenges erect barriers that prevent potential investors from entering the market.

Furthermore, Janson described how AI-driven insights can make up for these shortcomings. He carefully illustrated how an automatic arbitrage trading scenario was able to take advantage of the value found within the Coinscious Collective™ platform. He shared the platform’s 24/7 event monitoring capability, pattern recognition and event analysis features, as well as ratings based on user risk preferences and ROI expectations.

Just as in Hangzhou, the responses we received were overwhelming and humbling. Both individual and institutional investors showed great interest in Coinscious and its data services. Many expressed their eagerness for our platform to launch so that they can start accessing investment tools that will provide helpful market forecast and trading strategies.

At this event, Janson and Tom participated in a Q&A session. Below are some highlights from that interview.

Q1: How can Coinscious beat competition that offers similar tools and services?

A1: There are very few, and in fact no major players, offering data services in the cryptocurrency market. If you take the stock market as a benchmark, many companies provide data services in every country’s market. In terms of numbers, there is nothing comparable in the cryptocurrency market. In addition, our AI-driven analysis methods differ greatly from the traditional algorithm and speed driven financial markets, like the stock and foreign exchange markets. Given the unique traits of the cryptocurrency market, we believe that the Coinscious platform could help quantitative trading investors perform better.

Q2: In the traditional markets, the quantitative operation needs to be back tested, using data from five or even ten years ago. A data set that large is not available in the cryptocurrency market. Given the lack of data, how can Coinscious overcome the difficulties of quantitative trading?

A2: This is exactly the type of challenge that Coinscious was created to address. Coinscious extracts available data from reliable sources, providing users with the opportunity to create better investment strategies. Through our own unique data analysis, we provide more information to help investors find more opportunities and build quantitative strategies that can adapt to the cryptocurrency market.

We also recognize that the cryptocurrency market requires a different strategy. The market changes rapidly, making historical data less useful compared to traditional markets. A strategy that worked in 2016 is less likely to work in 2018.

Further, Coinscious helps investors in the traditional market understand and adapt to the crypto market using AI-driven data analysis. Finding useful data is crucial to this market. Quantitative traders have to create strategies based on the data they can access. In this market, patterns and insights change all the time. It’s hard to accumulate historical data, since many cryptocurrencies have only short histories. This demands a quantitative trading strategy that differs significantly from strategies used in traditional financial markets.

 

Coinscious in Beijing

How To Stay Ahead In A Bearish Coin Market

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As the once-hot cryptocurrency market has cooled, investment has cooled, as well. As the downward market trend continues, investors face a bear market, wondering what their next moves should be. Some investors hope cryptocurrency tycoons will raise prices and help them out. Yet the pioneers in this market, who have access to the world’s leading investment advisory tools, don’t feel the burden of the bear market. When the market is bad, they don’t lose much. When the market is strong, they win more than average. As a blockchain and AI-driven tool designed for the cryptocurrency market, Coinscious filters complicated market information, draws effective conclusions from it, and recommends strategies to users. With this information at hand, users can not only protect their capital but also profit during a down market.

One motivating factor behind our global tour has been to let more investors know that the current situation is solvable. The goal has been to let more investors experience the advantages that Coinscious offers.

On August 17, 2018, a closed-door investment meeting of quality blockchain projects was held in Beijing Haidian Quanpin Mansion. As a leading international AI and blockchain intelligent investment advisory project, Coinscious was invited to attend and received interest and accolades from experienced Chinese investors gathered there.

Our CSO, Janson, spoke at the event, giving an example of what we call the “Coinscious Lab”, where we conduct experiments, analyze them, and share the results with the public. Janson shared our latest Coinscious Lab experiments including arbitrage, short term price prediction, correlation between social sentiment and price change, token correlation analysis and orderbook analysis. The attendees really enjoyed seeing the successful results.

After learning more about how the Coinscious platform worked, investors showed high interest in our business model. They also expressed their willingness to try our service after launch. Many investors expressed their hope of being able to upgrade their trading experience and results using our tool.

Several investors and participants in the blockchain community were in attendance, including OK Capital, AKHacks, Tfund, ValueNet Capital, FBG Capital, WBO, GVC, BQEX, BlockOrigin Capital, ValueNet Capital, MPT, AFund, OnFund and many others. As has been true at every stop of our global tour, the Coinscious team has been inspired and motivated by the enthusiasm that always greets our presentations. Excitement is being generated around our platform everywhere we go. That fervor has sparked our team’s passion for what we do making us more focused than ever on continuing to create a platform that helps resolve some of the biggest issues investors face in the cryptocurrency trading market.

At this event, Janson participated in a Q&A session. Below are a couple of highlights from that interview.

Q1: From what I understand about Coinscious, it seems your business does not rely much on blockchain technology itself. Yet there are many existing companies that offer data service to exchanges, funds, or cryptocurrency investors. What makes Coinscious different?

A1: Currently, we run more like a centralized project. However, we hope to have decentralized data sharing that networks with the whole community in the future. The data itself requires a large amount of storage so it is not practical to centralize that storage. Regarding offline data analysis such as simulations, it does not require fast data retrieval. This means that there are many data storage approaches that can work in this case. In order to reduce the pressure from a high demand for large data storage and AI computation resources, we would like to leverage the capacity of the community as a resource. IPFS protocol and computation nodes will be introduced so that community members can contribute storage and processing power respectively, and get rewards in return.

Q2: Who is your major target market—individuals or institutions? Do you already have a user base?

A2: At this stage, our biggest clients are institution funds and quantitative teams that buy our data. Just as people asked during our tour of the United States as well as in Shanghai, how do you sell the data? What data do you have? They would like to use this data immediately, including the currencies and exchanges that we have access to. With this high demand, our data service will be launched in two months, and sales should be easy to achieve.

On the other hand, we will also offer a tool for general users to track and manage their assets. It will be a free tool to help get more people interested and using cryptocurrencies, while also educating them. This is an important step in helping the market stabilize and mature.

 

Coinscious on Nasdaq NYC

Coinscious on the NASDAQ Big Screen in Times Square

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On August 9, Coinscious appeared on the NASDAQ big screen in New York City’s Times Square. Given our summer tour that has spanned from Canada to US to Europe and all over Asia, it seems appropriate that our logo would make its appearance at the landmark known as the “crossroads of the world.” At Coinscious, we want our brand to represent our extensive work in artificial intelligence, big data, and blockchain as the building blocks for our Coinscious Collective™ platform. These technologies drive cryptocurrency markets and represent a another kind of global crossroad—a level and open playing field rich with opportunity. Our passion for these fields are why we’ve spent time going from country to country this summer, connecting with thought leaders and spreading our message.

Our core team at Coinscious, headquartered in Canada, is composed of experts in blockchain, AI, and big data. Our Coinscious Collective™ platform uses AI to build statistical models. It also uses machine learning to take advantage of financial engineering, quantitative trading, and risk management techniques. In this way, the platform provides investors with a smart, efficient, secure platform for digital asset management and AI-powered investing.

Coinscious has created products and services to help investors find useful and timely market information, manage their assets and investment plans, forecast prices and create quantitative strategies. We created this platform to meet the needs of everyday investors and professional institutions who need to make the most of their time and resources. It’s our hope that, in the future, Coinscious will also aid in the compliance, rapid development, and progress of the digital asset investment market. But for now, we’re really just enjoying seeing our logo light up Times Square.

Shanghai Blockchain Expo

The Coinscious World Tour: Shanghai, China

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Coinscious made their first appearance in Asia at the China Wealth Management Ecology Conference, held August 3rd, 2018. The conference was co-sponsored by Fortune Magazine, Private Equity Forum CPF100, and the Shanghai Branch of the Shanghai Enterprises (Commerce Association).

Roughly 300 attendees, drawn from regulatory authorities, domestic and overseas asset management institutions, financial technology companies and private investors, gathered to celebrate the theme of “New Technology, New Fortune, New Future.”

Our Co-Founder and CEO, Tom Bao, and Global Marketing Director, David Buell, delivered our keynote entitled “Financial Technology Innovation — AI Artificial Intelligence + Blockchain.” They updated attendees on the progress of Coinscious.

Cryptocurrency investors face several pain points such as volatility, overwhelming amounts of data, inefficient asset management, security incidents, and a lack of adequate tools. Coinscious will solve these challenges by providing big data services, market information, asset management, and other useful services.

Coinscious Marketing Director, David Buell, and CEO, Tom Bao, speak on the power of AI and blockchain.

 

During the conference, Mr. Wenpu Dai, who is the deputy director of the blockchain value Internet innovation application laboratory at Tongji University, hosted a panel discussion on the topic of “a blockchain-driven future.” Our Co-Founder and CSO Janson Jiang, WhaleChain Founder & CEO Sun Huanhuan, Hong Kong Jubilee blockchain technology consulting company COO Xie Yingying, and Juehu Technology CEO Wei Wu, with the host, shared their respective views and insights on blockchain technology.

 

Coinscious Co-Founder and CSO, Janson Jiang, discusses “a blockchain-driven future” with other panelists.

Also during the conference, Fortune Magazine announced the “2018 China Finance Value List.” Coinscious emerged as a leader among numerous blockchain projects and won the “Fintech Innovation Award.”

 

Coinscious was honored to receive the Fintech Innovation Award.

Conference attendees were receptive to the Coinsicous project, and the event generated buzz about the company by the region’s media. Read some of their reports below:

http://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/5333511944/13de6ef0800100br78

https://kuaibao.qq.com/s/20180806A12VNK00

https://www.toutiao.com/i6586505504862765581/

https://www.toutiao.com/i6586514137537315335

Blockchain and cryptocurrency is a worldwide phenomenon drawing the attention of investors and finance managers around the globe. We at Coinscious are excited to be part of this emerging sector and look forward to the role we will play in helping finance leaders and investors navigate the coin market in smarter ways.

Coinscious Labs Arbitrage

Coinscious Lab: Arbitrage

By | Coinscious Lab | No Comments

The Challenge of Arbitrage in Crypto Markets

People get excited when they hear about arbitrage opportunities in the crypto market. That excitement is driven by frequently seeing big price differences between exchanges. If you have coding skills, you might think taking advantage of those price differences using arbitrage will be a piece of cake.

The real challenges come as you write, test, and run your code against exchange accounts. Here are just a few of the challenges that come from trying to execute an arbitrage strategy in the crypto market.

Simulation Accuracy

Most developers use simulations to verify their ideas and coding. However, depending on how you execute your simulation, your simulation results might be quite different from your real-world  results. For example, if your simulation is based on the order book (open buy and sell orders), your simulation result might be totally misleading.

Placing Orders

When you see price differences between exchanges, do you check price differences in the order book as well? Do you know if your orders will actually be fulfilled or the timing of those orders?

Capturing Future Opportunities

After you make some arbitrage transactions, you might find one exchange price is always higher than another. Opportunities to take advantage of arbitrage may decrease. How will you continue to profit with limited funds and fewer opportunities?

Technical Challenges

The crypto exchange is not like the stock exchange. Most crypto exchange APIs are not designed for high-frequency trading. Some APIs are poorly designed and unstable. The exchange may go down. The API server could stop responding. Perhaps internal logic or a limit is changed on the exchange side. There are many scenarios where API calls fail. It might be harder than you think to execute a robust arbitrage program without human interaction.

Weighing the Risks

Transaction fees are not cheap in crypto exchanges. If you have transaction success in one exchange, but failed transactions in another, you could lose money very quickly.

Profit Expectations

Of course, everyone would like to know if profit expectations through arbitrage are real and reliable. Many variables come into play when answering this question.

Choosing an Arbitrage Coding Strategy

In addition to two-point arbitrage, you also might hear about triangle or multiple-point arbitrage. Do you understand which strategy is best for you? Does fund size affect your arbitrage strategy? What is the proper fund size you should try? Answering these questions might be harder than you thought.

Bot Parameters

The parameters used by trading bots are also important. There is no “one size fits all” bot that can simply run for you all day every day. Bot parameters have to be set, tested, optimized, and then put into practice in the real world.

Experiment Goal

In this lab experiment, we conducted an arbitrage experiment to determine how to overcome the challenges mentioned above. This lab experiment will also verify what kind of data support is needed to maximize profit and minimize risk.

Profit Snapshots 

Coinscious Labs Arbitrage

This image shows the total amount of transactions completed per day.

 

Coinscious Labs Arbitrage

This image shows a breakdown of all 36 transactions from January 14. The highlighted price in the top right of the image shows that we bought 13.46 LSK at a price of 0.00194800 BTC, on Binance. Correspondingly, this transaction is shown in the Binance transaction history in the snapshot below.

 

Our results in the Binance transaction history

 

Experiment Results

We ended the month with a profit of +0.81616874 BTC (+55.34%), and +80.02477571 LSK (+8.07%).

We see our transactions in the real world, fully automated, with a dynamic configuration of different variables and parameters.

This lab experiment was conducted on several combinations of currencies (such as: BTC/LSK, BTC/USD, BTC/IOTA, BTC/ETH) and on different exchanges.

All experiments were successful. In this Coinscious Lab experiment, we looked at the results of our BTC/LSK arbitrage. For data and information on other experiments, please contact us.

Coinscious Labs Arbitrage Results

Here we see the accumulative results of arbitrage for each day during the month of January.

 

Future Development

Based on different experiments completed by Coinscious Lab, the Coinscious product team will create new product designs that cover the various needs in crypto arbitrage. These designs will not only help traders capture more opportunities, but also will optimize the process through simulation, AI optimization, profit estimation, and so on.