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Crypto Bear Market Continues & Remains Anti-Correlated with S&P

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics, Market Report | No Comments

Coinscious Market Report

by Coinscious Lab

February 4, 2019

Biggest
30d % Gain

  Augur (REP)
+50.39%

Biggest 30d %
Gain (Sector)

Data & Information
+5.31%

Biggest
30d % Loss

 NEM (XEM)
37.86%

Biggest 30d %
Loss (Sector)

Resources
19.58%

Overview

Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from January 5, 2019 to February 3, 2019.

Our universe of analysis includes 50 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies, and groups them into sectors that reflect similar utility and valuation models. Through analysis of the recent historical performance of individual cryptocurrencies as well as their sectors, we provide a framework for analysis where investors can identify outperforming cryptocurrencies or sectors by comparing their performance relative to peers.

Sector
Constituent Coins/Tokens
Digital Cash BTC, BCH, BSV, LTC, BTG, DOGE, DCR, BCD, DGB
Privacycoins XMR, DASH, ZEC, XVG
DApp Platforms ETH, EOS, ADA, NEO, ETC, XEM, XTZ, QTUM, LSK, AE, ZIL, ICX, BTM, ETP
Resources SC, GNT
Payments and Settlements XRP, XLM, OMG, NPXS, MKR, PPT
Decentralized Exchanges BTS, ZRX, WAVES
Digital Content TRX, ONT, BAT, STEEM
Data and Information IOTA, VET, LINK, REP
Stablecoin USDT, TUSD, DAI

Analysis

The performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past month has been lacklustre, with only 6 out of the 50 cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has been trading between $3800 and $3400 without any major moves and is currently hovering around $3500. Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 has been performing well, up 6.90% from 30 days ago and closing last Friday at $2706.53.

Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies.

Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from January 5, 2019 to February 3, 2019. Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment.

The best performer overall over the past month was Augur’s reputation token (REP), with a total return of 50.39%. This was also the best performing cryptocurrency from our previous market report two weeks ago. The surge in price was attributed to the announcement of the Viel platform on January 15. Viel is a peer-to-peer trading platform for prediction markets and derivatives built on top of Augur, with the goal of making Augur easier to use and more ubiquitous by making transactions faster and cheaper.

NEM (XEM) was the worst performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 33.31%. Ethereum (ETH) and ICON (ICX) were the second and third worst performers respectively, and all three are part of the dApp platform sector.

Figure 2 shows various performance measures of the nine sectors as well as that of the S&P 500 for comparison and Figure 3 plots the performance over time of each sector. Performance between the sectors was mostly negative with only data and information having positive total returns. Total returns ranged from -19.58% (resources) to 5.31% (data and information).

Data and information has been the best performing sector for three consecutive reports now, corresponding to a time period spanning two months. Reputation, the best performing cryptocurrency, is in the data and information sector, as well as ChainLink (LINK), IOTA (IOTA), and VeChain (VET).

Resources, the worst performing sector, is composed of Siacoin (SC) and Golem (GNT). This is a sector for platforms and tokens that facilitate markets for decentralized resources. In the case of these two tokens, the resources are cloud storage and computing power respectively.

Figure 2. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, maximum drawdown, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each sector from January 5, 2019 to February 3, 2019. Less negative maximum drawdowns and more positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

Figure 3a. Price performance over time by sectors that had positive returns between January 5, 2019 to February 3, 2019.

Figure 3b. Price performance over time by sectors that had negative returns between January 5, 2019 to February 3, 2019.

Figure 4 shows the correlation between the daily returns of each sector. Stablecoins had moderate negative correlation with other sectors. As shown in Figure 2, stablecoins continued to fulfill their intended purpose well by maintaining low volatility, mean daily returns near 0%, and a near zero total return of -0.89% over the observation period. The S&P 500 also had little correlation with any cryptocurrency sectors. As for the other sectors, despite their varying performance, they had high positive correlation with each other, ranging from 0.66 to 0.95, but slightly lower compared to 0.77 to 0.97 from two weeks ago.

Figure 4. Correlation between daily returns of each sector from January 20, 2019 to February 3, 2019. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

APPENDIX A: Methodology

The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from January 5, 2019 to February 3, 2019 was used for our calculations.

The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data. If there was insufficient good quality data on a cryptocurrency’s value in USD, we would instead use the cryptocurrency’s value in USDT and apply a conversion rate to turn it to USD. If data was still insufficient, then we would find the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in both BTC and ETH, then converted both into USD, and finally took the mean of those values. The conversion rates we use at a given time are the volume weighted average price of USDT, BTC, or ETH to USD at that specific time across all exchanges where Coinscious has data.

To analyze performance by sector, the prices of constituent cryptocurrencies was normalized by dividing by the price on January 5, 2019, then averaged. When calculating the daily returns using this averaged normalized price, it is equivalent to if each sector was represented as an equally weighted portfolio of its constituent cryptocurrencies formed starting January 5, 2019 and the returns of the portfolio were calculated. Returns used throughout this report refer to simple returns.

Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index from Yahoo Finance was also used as a proxy to represent the US equity market. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.

In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX B: Terminology

  • Volatility:  A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
  • Drawdown:  A measure of the decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment since the previous peak during a certain period of time. Less negative, less frequent, and shorter drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Maximum drawdown:  The maximum peak to trough decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment over a certain period of time. Less negative maximum drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Sharpe ratio:  A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
  • Correlation:  A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.

Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report.

Crypto Market Recovers: Waves Tops the Chart, Up By 203.50%

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics, Market Report | No Comments

Coinscious Market Report – December 21, 2018


Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports are planned to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from November 20, 2018 to December 20, 2018. In this report, we also provide analysis on bitcoin price movements from a technical perspective to see where the market as a whole may be headed in the near future.