Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from August 3, 2019 to September 1, 2019. ethereum classic
Our universe of analysis includes 50 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies. Please see Appendix A for the complete list. ethereum classic
The performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past month was bad, with only 6 out of the 50 cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently trading at $9900 at the time of writing, having oscillated between $10525 and $9775 last week. ETC
Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 is down -1.76% from 30 days ago and closed last Friday at $292.37.
Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies.
Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from August 3, 2019 to September 1, 2019. Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment.
The best performer overall over the past month was Ethereum Classic (ETC), with a total return of 6.59%. Ethereum Classic is a hard fork of Ethereum having consistently more efficient value transfers and a focus on IoT applications. Ethereum Classic also had the second highest Sharpe ratio of the cryptocurrencies analyzed, beat only by MakerDAO’s stablecoin (DAI).
The second and third best performing cryptocurrencies were Paxos Standard (PAX) and TrueUSD (TUSD) – both stablecoins – with total returns of 0.19% and 0.11%, respectively.
Bitcoin Gold (BTG) was the worst performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 40.37%. Bitcoin Gold is a hard fork of Bitcoin and will be delisted from Bittrex this mid-September. The second and third worst performing cryptocurrencies were MonaCoin (MONA) and Litecoin (LTC), with total losses of 35.39% and 32.83%, respectively.
Figure 2a. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each of the five cryptocurrencies with the highest total returns from August 3, 2019 to September 1, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.
Figure 2b. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each of the five cryptocurrencies with the lowest total returns from August 3, 2019 to September 1, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate. Bitcoin
Figure 3 plots daily candlesticks of the prices of Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and XRP (XRP), the three largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. In addition, the following commonly used technical analysis indicators are shown:
- Simple moving averages (SMA) with periods of 50, 100, and 200 days
- Relative strength index (RSI) with a period of 14 days
- Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) with a fast EMA period of 12 days, slow EMA period of 26 days, and a signal period of 9 days
The 50-day simple moving averages for Bitcoin is above the 100-day moving average. Ether had a crossover from above to below before mid-August while XRP remained below throughout the month. This indicates a short-lived bullish market at the beginning of August, but overall ending with a bearish signal.
The RSI values of Bitcoin briefly increased to high 60’s but dipped below again. Both RSI values for Ether and XRP oscillated between 30-50’s – neither overbought nor oversold – for the entire past 30 days.
For all top three cryptocurrencies, the MACD line crossed below the MACD signal line towards mid-August. This is known as a bearish crossover and could be interpreted as a short-lived bearish signal. ethereum classic
Figure 3a. Price of Bitcoin (BTC) in USD at Bitstamp from August 3, 2019 to September 1, 2019.
Figure 3b. Price of Ether (ETH) in USD at Bitstamp from July 7, 2019 to August 4, 2019. ETC
Figure 3c. Price of XRP (XRP) at Bitstamp in USD from July 7, 2019 to August 4, 2019.
Below is a complete list of all cryptocurrencies examined in this market report. In addition, we present the mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each cryptocurrency from August 3, 2019 to September 1, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.
The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from August 3, 2019 to September 1, 2019 was used for our calculations. ETC
The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data. The only exception is Siacoin (SC), where we used the Yahoo Finance price instead due to data quality issues at the time of writing.
Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index was obtained from Yahoo Finance. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.
In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.
- Volatility: A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
- Sharpe ratio: A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.
Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report. ethereum classic