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Bitcoin Price Jumps Past $7,600

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics, Market Report | No Comments
Biggest
30d % Gain

Bitcoin (BTC) 
+39.46%

Biggest
30d % Loss

Zilliqa (ZIL) 
-18.01%

Overview

Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019.

Our universe of analysis includes 50 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies. Please see Appendix A for the complete list.

Analysis

The performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past month was overall not very good, with only 18 out of the 50 cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was the best performer over the past month and bitcoin price is $7600 at the time of writing.

Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 is down 0.83% from 30 days ago and closed last Friday at $2881.40.

Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies.

Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019. Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment. Volatility, on the x-axis, is presented in log scale.

The best performer overall over the past month was Bitcoin (BTC), with a total return of 39.46%.

The second and third best performing cryptocurrencies were Bitcoin Gold (BTG) and Link (LINK), with total returns of 36.42% and 35.55% respectively.

Zilliqa (ZIL) was the worst performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 18.01%. Zilliqa is a public blockchain platform designed to handle high transaction rates that scale linearly with network size.

The second and third worst performing cryptocurrencies were Siacoin (SC) and Aeternity (AE) with total losses of 17.26% and 14.29% respectively.

Figure 2a. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each cryptocurrencies with the highest total returns from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

Figure 2b. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for cryptocurrencies with the lowest total returns from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

Figure 3 plots daily candlesticks of the Bitcoin price and Ether price, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. In addition, the following commonly used technical analysis indicators are shown:

  • Simple moving averages (SMA) with periods of 50, 100, and 200 days
  • Relative strength index (RSI) with a period of 14 days
  • Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) with a fast EMA period of 12 days, slow EMA period of 26 days, and a signal period of 9 days

The indicators for all three cryptocurrencies share many common features.

First, the 50-day simple moving average continues to stay above the 100-day moving average, a continuation of a long-term bullish signal.

Furthermore, for all three cryptocurrencies, the MACD line has crossed below the MACD signal line approximately a week ago. This is known as a bullish crossover and could be interpreted as a bullish signal.

The RSI values of all Ether and XRP are neither oversold or overbought, although both are trending upward and the value for Ether is almost crossing the 70 overbought threshold. Bitcoin’s RSI value is above 70 and indicates that it is overbought. Prices are typically expected to dip after being overbought, but momentum oscillators can also become remain overbought before actually reaching a peak during a strong trend.

Figure 3a. Bitcoin price (BTC) in USD at Bitstamp from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019.

Figure 3b. Price of Ether (ETH) in USD at Bitstamp from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019.

Figure 3c. Price of XRP (XRP) in USD at Bitstamp from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019.

APPENDIX A: Cryptocurrencies

Below is a complete list of all cryptocurrencies examined in this market report. In addition, we present the mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each cryptocurrency from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate. Bitcoin price

APPENDIX B: Methodology

The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from April 13, 2019 to May 12, 2019 was used for our calculations.

The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data. The only exception is Siacoin (SC), where we used the Yahoo Finance price instead due to data quality issues at the time of writing.

Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index was obtained from Yahoo Finance. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX C: Terminology

  • Volatility: A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
  • Drawdown: A measure of the decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment since the previous peak during a certain period of time. Less negative, less frequent, and shorter drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Maximum drawdown: The maximum peak to trough decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment over a certain period of time. Less negative maximum drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Sharpe ratio: A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
  • Correlation: A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.

Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report. Bitcoin price.

Crypto Market Recoveries

By | News | No Comments

📝 Bakkt Ready To Test Bitcoin Futures This July

MONDAY, MAY 13, 2019

Bakkt, the crypto initiative by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) which was first announced August 2018 is ready to launch testing for bitcoin futures trading July 2019. In their Medium post, Bakkt announced they will be working closely with ICE Futures U.S. Exchange, ICE Clear U.S. clearinghouse to ensure a successful launch as well as the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission to be complaint with federal regulations. 

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


🚦Binance To Reopen Deposits & Withdrawals On Tuesday

MONDAY, MAY 13, 2019

Cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, will resume deposit and withdrawal services this Tuesday. The platform suffered a major hack on May 7, resulting in the theft of 7,070 bitcoins (worth $40 million) from the exchange’s hot wallets. In their official announcement, CEO, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), shared the team has been working on adding a number of advanced security features with more details to be provided shortly. 

SOURCE: COINDESK


🐋 Blockchain Watch

MONDAY, MAY 13, 2019

SOURCE: TWITTER


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

Bitcoin Prices Steadily Increase; Now Holding at $5,400

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics, Market Report | No Comments
Biggest
30d % Gain

Bitcoin Cash
+55.64%

Biggest
30d % Loss

Maker (MKR)
-23.58%

Overview

Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019.

Our universe of analysis includes 50 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies. Please see Appendix A for the complete list.

Analysis

The performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past month has been good, with 31 out of the 50 cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is trading around $5,400. Prices were as high as $5,500 earlier this week. Bitcoin broke above the $4,200 overhead resistance level on April 1 with a sharp jump to $5,000 and has been steadily increasing in value since then.

Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 is up 3.72% from 30 days ago and closed last Friday at $2,939.88.

Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies.

Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019. Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment.

The best performer overall over the past month was Bitcoin Cash (BCH), with a total return of 55.64%. Bitcoin Cash is an altcoin created after a hardfork to Bitcoin in August 2017. Bitcoin Cash has larger blocks than Bitcoin, and hence can theoretically process more transactions per second.

The second and third best performing cryptocurrencies were Basic Attention Token (BAT) and Binance Coin (BNB), with total returns of 80.40% and 37.59% respectively.

Maker (MKR) was the worst performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 23.58%. Maker is a governance token as well as a utility token for the MakerDAO smart contract platform, which backs and stabilizes the value of Dai (DAI), a soft-pegged stablecoin.

The second and third worst performing cryptocurrencies were Waves (Waves) and Steem (STEEM) with total losses of 23.21% and 19.92% respectively.

Figure 2a. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each cryptocurrencies with the highest total returns from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

Figure 2b. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for cryptocurrencies with the lowest total returns from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

Figure 3 plots daily candlesticks of the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, as well as the top performer of the past month, Bitcoin Cash (BCH). In addition, the following commonly used technical analysis indicators are shown:

  • Simple moving averages (SMA) with periods of 50, 100, and 200 days
  • Relative strength index (RSI) with a period of 14 days
  • Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) with a fast EMA period of 12 days, slow EMA period of 26 days, and a signal period of 9 days

The indicators for all three cryptocurrencies share many common features.

First, the 50-day simple moving average continues to stay above the 100-day moving average, a continuation of a long-term bullish signal.

However, for all three cryptocurrencies, the MACD line has crossed below the MACD signal line. This is known as a bearish crossover and could be interpreted as a bearish signal.

Finally, The RSI values of all three cryptocurrencies were in overbought territory above 70 but have since returned to below 70. Prices are typically expected to dip after being overbought, but momentum oscillators can also become oversold multiple times or remain oversold before actually reaching a bottom during a strong uptrend.

Figure 3a. Price of Bitcoin (BTC) in USD at Bitstamp from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019.

Figure 3b. Price of Ether (ETH) in USD at Bitstamp from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019.

Figure 3c. Price of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) in USD at Bitstamp from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019.

APPENDIX A: Cryptocurrencies

Below is a complete list of all cryptocurrencies examined in this market report. In addition, we present the mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each cryptocurrency from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate

APPENDIX B: Methodology

The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from March 30, 2019 to April 28, 2019 was used for our calculations.

The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data. The only exception is Siacoin (SC), where we used the Yahoo Finance price instead due to data quality issues at the time of writing.

Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index was obtained from Yahoo Finance. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.

In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX C: Terminology

  • Volatility: A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
  • Drawdown: A measure of the decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment since the previous peak during a certain period of time. Less negative, less frequent, and shorter drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Maximum drawdown: The maximum peak to trough decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment over a certain period of time. Less negative maximum drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Sharpe ratio: A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
  • Correlation: A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.

Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report.

Investigating Crypto Exchange Price & Volume Patterns

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics, Exchange Report | No Comments

Overview

Released monthly, this report aims to analyze and characterize cryptocurrency exchanges according to their volume for the past month, this time from February 16, 2019 to March 16, 2019.

Our universe of analysis uses public exchange data from 18 of some of the most popular exchanges1 (see Figure 1). Through analysis of the recent historical volume and price of individual exchanges we provide a framework for analysis where investors can identify better or fairer exchanges.

Using daily volume data from some of the most widely used cryptocurrency exchanges, we were able to cluster exchanges into three groups based on similarity in volume trends. Some of our findings include the following:

  • OKEx and HitBTC go against the market both in terms of volume correlation and price-volume correlation.
  • Although OKEx has reported the biggest traded volume between February 16, 2019 to March 16, 2019, PCA analysis separates it from the other top exchanges (i.e. Binance and HuobiPro), and shows a low correlation with the market in terms of traded volume.

Performance

Figure 1. Total monthly volume, mean daily volume, max daily volume, mean hourly volume and max hourly volume for each exchange from February 16, 2019 to March 16, 2019 in USD. Monitor exchange performance daily through our Market & Trading Strategy Dashboard: dashboard.coinscious.io

According to the public exchange data, OKEx has reported the biggest mean daily and hourly volume for the past month.

In the past month, OKEx took first place with a total of $28 billion traded between February 16 to March 16, compared to $25 billion for ZB (2nd) and $20 billion for Binance (3rd) (see Figure 1).

We chose ETH/BTC trading pair to analyze exchange volumes in more depth. ZB traded volume for ETH/BTC was the highest overall, following the trend described in our previous Exchange Report. However, OKEx took first place on March 5 when its volume changed from $78 million to $107 million in a single day. It remained at the top spot until March 12, when its volume dropped back down to $39 million; ZB retook first place. Interestingly, according to BeinCrypto, on March 5 ethereum’s price began to increase rapidly from $130 throughout the earlier part of the day, and reached a daily highly of $143.83 on March 6 [1].

Figure 2. ETH/BTC pair daily volume for each exchange from February 16, 2019 to March 16, 2019 in USD.

Observations

The cryptocurrency market was on an uptrend starting from the morning of Wednesday, April 3, 2019 – the price of BTC went up from $4,000 to $4,800. In fact, because of the BTC pump, we observed that there were huge volume changes for all exchanges except Fcoin; their volume changes remained low.

Figure 3a. Top 10 crypto exchange volume changes on April 3, 2019.

As you can see in Figure 3a, the top 10 exchanges have 1-day volume changes ranging between 73.35% to 315.18%. However, Fcoin is the only exchange with a much lower volume change of 9.25%.

Three days later, on the morning of Saturday, April 6, 2019, the market started to slow down and became tranquil. Again, we can observe this from 1-day volume changes in Figure 3b, where most of the exchanges’ volume changes decreased to around 22-60%. Nevertheless, Fcoin and HitBTC volume changes were up by 18% and 19% respectively.

Figure 3b. Top 10 crypto exchange volume changes on April 6, 2019.  

These strong indications reveal that Fcoin (and possibly HitBTC) is likely faking its volume. The next section delves into a deeper analysis and looks at which specific exchanges violate volume trends in comparison to all exchanges overall.

Analysis

In order to categorize exchanges and investigate their trends during the past month, we performed a dimensionality reduction analysis using PCA2 for ETH/BTC pair daily volume. By plotting crypto exchanges according to their first two principal components, we identified a cluster and some outliers (see Figures 3a and 3b). The two first principal components explain more than 80% of the variance in our data set and the relative position along the x- and y-axes indicate similarities between exchanges in terms of traded volume. Thus, exchanges clustered together present similar volume trends, while outliers, namely Okex, HuobiPro, Binance, Fcoin, HitBTC, and ZB, show trends that diverge from the market mean.

If we zoom in on the market mean, we can identify subgroups of exchanges that are closely related inside the market mean (Figure 3b).

Figure 3a. PCA Volume analysis for ETH/BTC. The biplot, where the two main principal components are used to represent the exchanges allows us to identify clusters or groups of exchanges that might be correlated according to volume.

Figure 3b. PCA Volume analysis excluding outliers in the first analysis.

To understand the meaning of the two principal components and characterize the outliers, we decided to look at correlation between exchanges. We used volume for the ETH/BTC pair to identify a general trend in the market and determine whether exchanges follow or are against the trend (see Figure 5). Although most exchanges show a similar trend (that is, they follow a similar daily volume trend), OKEx, Bitflyer, BigOne and HitBTC show a daily volume trend that goes against the market. Interestingly, ZB and Zaif follow the mean market trend this time. Also note that compared to the PCA biplot using daily volume data from January 16 to February 16, OKEx and ZB have swapped positions (see Figure 3 from the previous Exchange Report)

Figure 5a. Top 5 negative volume correlations

Figure 5b. Top 5 positive volume correlations

Figure 6. Daily volume correlations between exchanges from February 16, 2019 to March 16, 2019 for ETH/BTC. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

OKEx, in particular, shows negative correlations with all exchanges except for HitBTC and HuobiPro. This suggests that OKEx, Bitflyer, HitBTC and BigONE are acting against the market.

Again, Upbit and Bittrex show the highest correlation for all exchange pairs, suggesting that they share the same order book [2]. This was also noted in our previous Exchange Report.

To explore what other factors could contribute to the clustering in different groups after Volume PCA, we calculated the correlation between ETH/BTC price and volume for every exchange pair (see Figure 6).

Figure 7. Daily price-volume correlations between exchanges from February 16, 2019 to March 16, 2019 for ETH/BTC. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

OKEx and HitBTC stand out as exchanges with the highest negative correlation between ETC/BTC price and volume for all exchanges. This shows that not only their volume, but also their ETH prices go against the market. While most exchanges show a positive trend (higher volumes associated with higher prices), OKEx, HitBTC, HuobiPro and BigOne show a negative trend (higher volumes associated with lower prices, and vice versa).

Summary

Using daily volume data from 18 of some of the most widely used cryptocurrency exchanges and principal component analysis, we identified three clusters of exchanges sharing similar volume trends. We mainly looked at volume correlations and price-volume correlations. Our findings include:

  • Okex and HitBTC go against the market both in terms of volume correlation and price-volume correlation.
  • Although Okex has reported the biggest traded volume in the past month, PCA analysis separates it from the other top exchanges (i.e. Binance and HuobiPro) and shows a low correlation with the market in terms of traded volume.

Here, these findings are simple observations of possibly correlated variables. We share this from the point-of-view of something to look out for. Overall, our exchange analysis has proven useful to study patterns of volume and price activity in the market and identify potential manipulation, that could be confirmed using blockchain data.

Footnotes

1 The scope of this report does not cover futures contracts.

2 PCA is a technique that finds underlying variables that best differentiates your data points. In this article, we visualize and analyze along the two dimensions which the data points varies the most (see Appendix B).

APPENDIX A: Methodology

The daily volume of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from February 16, 2019 to March 16, 2019 was used for our volume ranking. Daily volume and price for the pair ethereum_bitcoin was used for the same time period for the PCA analysis and correlation analysis. Price and volume were normalized such that its distribution had mean value 0 and standard deviation of 1 in order to perform principal component analysis and calculate price-volume correlations. In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX B: Terminology

  • Correlation: A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.
  • PCA: A statistical procedure that uses an orthogonal transformation to convert a set of observations of possibly correlated variables into a set of values of linearly uncorrelated variables called principal components, in order to maximize the explained variance.

References

[1] T. (2018, December 11). Binance Losses Top Cryptocurrency Exchange Position to OKEX and ZB.Com. Retrieved from https://coingape.com/

[2] Lavere, M. (2019, February 13). Ethereum (ETH) Mining Reward Hits Lowest Ever.  Retrieved from https://ethereumworldnews.com/

[3] Bitking74. (2017, October 24). UPbit and Bittrex are sharing the same order book. This is a win win for both sides: bring some Korean liquidity to Bittrex, also the Korean users start with nicely filled order books from Bittrex. Go NEO. Neotrader [Online forum]. Retrieved from https://www.reddit.com/r/Neotrader/comments/78fztu/upbit_and_bittrex_are_sharing_the_same_order_book/

[4] J. (2018, September 18). Chinese Investor Loses 700,000 Yuan Due To Fcoin Crypto Manipulation. Retrieved from https://www.coindaily.co/

[5] Sillers, A. (2018, September 12). The evidence of OKex’s fraudulent behavior, which may point to HitBTC as well. Retrieved from https://www.chepicap.com/

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.

Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report.

BTC Surges In Last 2 Weeks To $5,105; Now Holding At $5,000

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics, Market Report | No Comments
Biggest
30d % Gain

Tezos (XTZ) 
+110.60%

Biggest
30d % Loss

Nano (NANO) 
-53.49%

Overview

Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from March 16, 2019 to April 14, 2019.

Our universe of analysis includes 50 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies. Please see Appendix A for the complete list.

Analysis

The performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past month has been good, with 41 out of the 50 cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, finally breaks above the $4,200 overhead resistance level on April 1; BTC surges to $5105. Various other cryptocurrencies, including second and third largest cryptocurrencies ether (ETH) and XRP (XRP) also experienced large upwards movements on the same day.

Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 is up 3.01% from 30 days ago and closed last Friday at $2907.41.

Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies

Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from March 16, 2019 to April 14, 2019 Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment.

The best performer overall over the past month was Tezos (XTZ), with a total return of 110.60%. Tezos is a self-amending proof-of-work dApp platform that removes the need to hard fork when implementing protocol amendments.

The second and third best performing cryptocurrencies were Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and IOST (IOST), with total returns of 80.40% and 71.34% respectively.

Nano (NANO) was the worst performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 53.49%. Nano is a low-latency payment platform designed for peer-to-peer transactions. The second and third worst performing cryptocurrencies were Maker (MKR) and Steem (STEEM) with total losses of 11.49% and 11.42% respectively.

Figure 2a. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each cryptocurrencies with the highest total returns from March 16, 2019 to April 18, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

Figure 2b. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for cryptocurrencies with the lowest total returns from March 16, 2019 to April 18, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate

Figure 3 plots daily candlesticks of the prices of Bitcoin ( BTC ) and Ether (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, as well as the top performer of the past month, Tezos (XTZ). In addition, the following commonly used technical analysis indicators are shown:

  • Simple moving averages (SMA) with periods of 50, 100, and 200 days
  • Relative strength index (RSI) with a period of 14 days
  • Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) with a fast EMA period of 12 days, slow EMA period of 26 days, and a signal period of 9 days

Figure 3a. Price of Bitcoin (BTC) in USD at Bitstamp from March 16, 2019 to April 14, 2019.

Figure 3b. Price of Ether (ETH) in USD at Bitstamp from March 16, 2019 to April 14, 2019.

Figure 3c. Price of Tezos (XTZ) in USD at Bitfinex from March 16, 2019 to April 14, 2019.

APPENDIX A: Cryptocurrencies

Below is a complete list of all cryptocurrencies examined in this market report. In addition, we present the mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each cryptocurrency from March 16, 2019 to April 18, 2019. More positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

APPENDIX B: Methodology

The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from March 16, 2019 to April 14, 2019 was used for our calculations.

The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data. The only exception is Siacoin (SC), where we used the Yahoo Finance price instead due to data quality issues at the time of writing.

Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index was obtained from from Yahoo Finance. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.

In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX C: Terminology

  • Volatility: A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
  • Drawdown: A measure of the decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment since the previous peak during a certain period of time. Less negative, less frequent, and shorter drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Maximum drawdown: The maximum peak to trough decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment over a certain period of time. Less negative maximum drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Sharpe ratio: A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
  • Correlation: A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.

Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report.

Crypto Cheers & Controversies

By | News | No Comments

⚖ FinCEN Penalizes Its First P2P Currency Exchanger

FRIDAY, APRIL 19, 2019

For the first time, the United States Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has penalized a peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrency exchanger for breaking anti-money laundering (AML) rules. FinCEN announced that the individual, Eric Powers, operated an unregistered money services business, did not have any written policies and procedures for compliance to the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), and failed to report and suspicious transactions. 

SOURCE: THEBLOCKCRYPTO


?? Coinnest Shuts Down

FRIDAY, APRIL 19, 2019

Coinnest, South Korea’s third largest cryptocurrency exchange, announced it will be officially closing down. The decision comes as a result of the exchange struggling to cope with changes in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries. They advised users will need to withdraw any funds on its platform by April 30

A few controversies the exchange experienced dealt with in the past year may be cause for its shut down. This January, the exchange reportedly lost $5 million worth in bitcoin and other digital assets, due to a mistaken airdrop. Last year, a top-level executive from Coinnest were arrested by Korean law enforcement agents and later convicted for fraud. 

SOURCE: COINDESK


? Self-Proclaimed Bitcoin Creator Sues Podcaster for Libel

FRIDAY, APRIL 19, 2019

Craig Wrightthe self-proclaimed creator of bitcoin, has sued podcaster Peter McCormack, of What Bitcoin Did, for libel. Wright accuses McCormack of denying he is Satoshi Nakamoto and is seeking nearly $130,000 in damages.

SOURCE: CCN


? Bakkt Eyes New York Licence For Crypto Custody

THURSDAY, APRIL 18, 2019

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) –  the owner of the New York Stock Exchange – is reportedly eyeing a New York license for its long-delayed crypto exchange Bakkt. The launch of Bakkt has been delayed by over five months due to scepticism from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over concerns of how clients’ tokens, linked to bitcoin futures, will safely be stored.

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG


⛓ Binance Chain Launches

THURSDAY, APRIL 18, 2019

Binance has officially launched its mainnet Binance Chain. The cryptocurrency exchange announced it will activate its native token, BNB, on the new network on April 23, allowing token holders to migrate their balances. In order to maintain a constant supply on both networks, old ethereum-based tokens will be destroyed as new BNB tokens are created on Binance Chain.

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


⚖ Winklevoss Brothers Settle $26M Bitcoin Lawsuit

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17, 2019

Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss have finally settled their lawsuit with Charlie Shrem, a bitcoin supporter and entrepreneur. Shrem claimed the Winklevoss twins owed him $26 million dollars worth of bitcoin. The U.S. District Court for the Sourthern District of New York announced a settlement has been reached by both parties. Both parties will have the right to reopen the case and proceed the trial within 30 days. 

SOURCE: BITCOINEXCHANGEGUIDE


? Coinbase Expands Crypto-to-Crypto Services to 11 Countries

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17, 2019

U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, introduced its Coinbase Pro trading platform to 11 more countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia including: Argentina, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Chile, India, Hong Kong, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and New Zealand.  The company announced that crypto-to-crypto trading is now available to users in 53 countries. 

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


?? Rakuten Opens Crypto Wallet Registration

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17, 2019

Japanese e-commerce giant, Rakuten, has started accepting account registrations for its upcoming cryptocurrency wallet, Rakuten Wallet. The company announced that users who have an account with Rakuten Bank or who already have a Rakuten member ID can sign-up prior to the official trading launch this June. 

SOURCE: COINGEEK


❌ Kraken Delists Bitcoin SV Following Community Poll

TUESDAY, APRIL 16, 2019

Kraken, the U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, set up a Twitter poll yesterday, asking its users whether it should delist bitcoin SV. Voters took to the polls and it was a 71% majority in favour of delisting the asset. Kraken’s decision follows in the footsteps of Binance, who dropped the coin earlier this week due to its founder’s “antiethical behaviour.”

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


? USDT Launches on Tron Network

MONDAY, APRIL 17, 2019

Tether has begun issuing its USD-pegged stablecoin, USDT, on the Tron‘s TRC-20 protocol. The development is an upgrade from the OMNI protocol-based USDT. Existing users of USDT can directly convert their tokens to USDT-Tron by contacting Tether or through exchanges. The network intends to allow zero fee transactions for the new coin.

SOURCE: COINGAPE


❌ Binance Delists Bitcoin SV (BSV)

MONDAY, APRIL 17, 2019

Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the CEO of cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, has announced it is delisting bitcoin SV (BSV) starting April 22. The decision was made due to controversy around BSV’s founder, Craig Wright, who’s proclaimed he is the pseudonymous creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. Wright has been unrelenting on Twitter, attacking users who refute his claim. CZ earlier warned Wright that he would delist the altcoin if he did not change his behaviour; Wright did not heed his threats.  

SOURCE: COINDESK


?  Blockchain Watch: Oh Whale

FRIDAY, APRIL 19, 2019
THURSDAY, APRIL 18, 2019
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17, 2019
TUESDAY, APRIL 16, 2019
MONDAY, APRIL 16, 2019

SOURCE: TWITTER


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

Official Crypto Beginnings & Ends

By | News | No Comments

? Binance Labs Grants $45K To Three Blockchain Projects

FRIDAY, APRIL 12, 2019

Binance Labs, a venture arm of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, granted $15,000 to each of its first 3 open-source Fellowship projects:

  • Ironbelly: a mobile crypto wallet from Grin blockchain,
  • HOPR: a privacy-preserving messaging protocol, and
  • Kitsune Wallet: an upgradeable on-chain wallet.

Binance Labs Fellowship helps fund and support open-source development projects that contribute and have infrastructure value to the blockchain ecosystem.

SOURCE: CRYPTONINJAS


? WikiLeaks Receives BTC Donation Worth $20,000

FRIDAY, APRIL 12, 2019

WikiLeaks leader, Julian Assange, was arrested by United Kingdom police for extradition to the United States. Assange has sought asylum since 2012 at the Ecuadorean embassy in London, but Ecuador recently withdrew this status. 

Since Assange’s arrest, WikiLeaks has plead for donations from the public to contribute to its official defence fund. The fund has received $20,000 worth of bitcoin at the time of this writing. 

SOURCE: DAILYHODL


? Coinbase Vice President Leaves After 5 Years

FRIDAY, APRIL 12, 2019

Coinbase, the U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, will say goodbye to executive and vice president, Dan Romero, at the end of this month. Romero has been with the company since 2014 when there was only 20 employees; they now have over 700.

The announcement was officially made through Coinbase’s Medium account, but does not share any specific reason for his departure. A total of nine senior and mid-level employees have left Coinbase since its fundraiser October of 2018. 

SOURCE: COINDESK


? Bakkt Hires Former Paypal & Google Exec For New Chief Product Officer

THURSDAY, APRIL 11, 2019

Bitcoin futures exchange, Bakkt, has introduced their new Chief Product Officer (CPO), Mike Blandina, a former Paypal and Google senior engineer executive. Bakkt CEO, Kelly Loeffler, announced that Mike will lead efforts to “converge a trusted ecosystem for digital assets with payment use cases.”

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


? 5th MakerDAO Poll To Increase in Stability Fee

THURSDAY, APRIL 11, 2019

Users of MakerDAO‘s stablecoin, DAI, are taking to the polls for the fifth vote this year to further increase the stability fee another 4%; a total increase of 11.5% per year if approved. The polls end today at 5 PM UTC and the majority so far is in favour of the increase. DAI is an ERC-20-based stablecoin pegged 1:1 with the USD via issuance of Maker-administered collateralized debt positions. 

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


?? China To Proposes New Policy on Crypto Mining

THURSDAY, APRIL 11, 2019

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has published a draft proposal looking to restrict and/or eliminate virtual currency mining. It does not outright specify that mining should be banned, but says it’s necessary to control as the current industry heavily relies on fossil fuel energy which leads to increased environmental pollution. 

Half of all existing bitcoin mining operations occur in China. If the proposal were to become policy, it will not only alter environmental impacts of bitcoin mining, but also decentralised mining efforts: wider hash rate distribution, stronger network, and new mining locations using renewable energy.  

SOURCE: NEWSBTC


? Coinbase Card Launches in the U.K.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10, 2019

Cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, has launched Coinbase Card to allow users in the United Kingdom to spend cryptocurrencies in-stores or any online website. The card itself is a Visa card that works with any merchants on the Visa network.

Coinbase has also released a Coinbase Card mobile app to manage crypto balances. Users can directly access cryptocurrencies from their account, without needing to transfer assets from the main to card app. The card costs $6.50 and every transaction costs 2.49% in fees (1.49% conversion fee plus 1% transaction fee. 

SOURCE: TECHCRUNCH


❌New York Rejects BitLicense Application by Bittrex

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10, 2019

Seattle-based cryptocurrency exchange, Bittrex, was rejected by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) on their application for a  BitLicense. The NYDFS published a formal letter outlining all of the factors and deficiencies that contributed to their decision. This included Bittrex’s: inadequate BSA/AML/OFAC compliance program, inadequate coin/token due diligence, inadequate capital, and more. 

Bittrex has released their official statement in response to the NYDFS’ decision. The company has stated that at this time, they are unsure if they will reapply for the BitLicense. 

SOURCE: COINDESK


? Mt. Gox Creditors Leader Leaves Post

TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2019

Founder and coordinator of Mt. Gox Legal, Andy Pag, has stepped down from the organized creditor group. Pag spearheaded the group 18 months ago with the intention of advocating for the reimbursement of creditors of the now defunct cryptocurrency exchange, Mt. Gox. Fast forward to today, Pag has shared in an interview that he believes ongoing legal issues – especially with former startup partner Coinlab – may hold up the civil rehabilitation process for up to two more years. 

SOURCE: COINDESK


? Western Union Partners With Digital Wallet

TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2019

Money transfer giant, Western Union, has partnered with digital wallet provider, Coins.ph, to expand cross-border transfers to the users in the Philippines. Users can receive and hold international money transfers from Western Union’s digital and retail networks in more than 60 and 200 countries respectively. 

SOURCE: COINSPEAKER


✂ Bitfinex Removes Minimum $10K Balance Requirement

TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2019

Cryptocurrency exchange, Bitfinex, has removed its $10,000 minimum equity trading requirement. On their official blog, they advised the update is in response to increasing level of requests for access to trade on the exchange from a wide variety of traders. To support their new wave of customers, the company has redesigned their support centre, created a new KYC portal, and will start offering sentiment analysis for supported coins/tokens.

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


⚖ QuadrigaCX Officially Declares Bankruptcy

MONDAY, APRIL 8, 2019

On Monday, the Nova Scotia Supreme Court ruled that the Canadian-based cryptocurrency exchange, QuadrigaCX, will be entering bankruptcy. Since the end-of-January, QuadrigaCX has been operating under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) to get assistance reclaiming access to funds located in cold wallets. Currently, the company owes 115,000 users more than $195 million worth in both cryptocurrency and fiat.

SOURCE: COINDESK


?  Blockchain Watch: Oh Whale

FRIDAY, APRIL 12, 2019
THURSDAY, APRIL 11, 2019
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10, 2019
TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2019
MONDAY, APRIL 8, 2019
SUNDAY, APRIL 7, 2019

SOURCE: TWITTER


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

XTZ Performs Best (+73.77%); ADA Offers More Than Its Peers

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics, Market Report | No Comments
Biggest
30d % Gain

Tezos (XTZ) 
+73.77%

Biggest 30d %
Gain (Sector)

Digital Content
+23.22%

Biggest
30d % Loss

Pundi X (NPXS) 
-16.06%

Smallest 30d %
Loss (Sector)

Stablecoins
-0.00%

Overview

Released bi-weekly, this report aims to identify broad trends in the cryptocurrency market. In order to reflect the latest developments in this fast-paced and volatile market, the reports plan to focus on metrics derived from a 30-day rolling window of data, this time from February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019.

Our universe of analysis includes 50 of some of the most widely used and traded cryptocurrencies, and groups them into sectors that reflect similar utility and valuation models. Through analysis of the recent historical performance of individual cryptocurrencies as well as their sectors, we provide a framework for analysis where investors can identify outperforming cryptocurrencies or sectors by comparing their performance relative to peers.

Sector
Constituent Coins/Tokens
Digital Cash BTC, BCH, BSV, LTC, BTG, DOGE, DCR, BCD, DGB
Privacycoins XMR, DASH, ZEC, XVG, BCN
DApp Platforms ETH, EOS, ADA, NEO, ETC, XEM, XTZ, QTUM, LSK, AE, ZIL, ICX, BTM, ETP
Resources SC, GNT
Payments and Settlements XRP, XLM, OMG, NPXS, MKR, PPT
Decentralized Exchanges BTS, ZRX, WAVES
Digital Content TRX, ONT, BAT, STEEM
Data and Information IOTA, VET, LINK, REP
Stablecoin USDT, TUSD, DAI

Analysis

The performance of major cryptocurrencies over the past month has been good, with 45 out of the 50  cryptocurrencies that we examined up from their values 30 days ago. Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is trading around $4100, still in the sideways trend that began in November last year. However, it is also up 5.00% compared to 30 days ago.

Outside of cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500 has been relatively flat, only up 1.11% from 30 days ago and closing yesterday at $2815.44.

Figure 1 presents the risk versus return trade-off over the past 30 days by plotting mean daily return versus historical daily volatility for various cryptocurrencies.   

Figure 1. Plot of mean daily return against historical daily volatility for individual cryptocurrencies from February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019. Higher returns at a given level of risk, measured through historical daily volatility, indicates a better investment.

The best performer overall over the past month was Tezos (XTZ), with a total return of 73.77%. Tezos is a self-amending proof-of-work dApp platform that removes the need to hard fork when implementing protocol amendments.

Stakeholders vote for their preferred proposed protocol amendments through a formal and systematic process that has four discrete periods: the Proposal Period, the Exploration or “Testing” Vote Period, the Testing Period, and the Promotion Vote Period. The Tezos community successfully concluded the first round of voting, the Proposal Period, on March 20 and are currently in the Exploration period, casting votes to decide whether the winning proposal will move on to be deployed to the test network.

This news is significant because it is the first time that the self-amending upgrade process has been put into action. According to ​Tezos​, removing the need to hard fork in order to make protocol amendments is an important because “the suggestion or expectation of a fork can divide the community, alter stakeholder incentives, and disrupt the network effects that are formed over time. Because of self-amendment, coordination and execution costs for protocol upgrades are reduced and future innovations can be seamlessly implemented.” ​Tezos’ price went up in the days leading up to the end of the first voting period, so it is possible that growing enthusiasm and positive news about the protocol upgrade was the underlying cause. The success of the first vote also likely caused the subsequent 31% jump on March 20.

The second and third best performing cryptocurrencies were Cardano (ADA) and Basic Attention Token (BAT) with total returns of 55.14% and 39.56% respectively. Cardano is noteworthy in that it offered higher returns than its peers with similar levels of risk, including several other dApp platforms. 

Pundi X (NPXS) was the worst performing cryptocurrency, with total losses of 16.06%.

Figure 2a. Cryptocurrencies with the highest total returns from February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019.

Figure 2b. Cryptocurrencies with the lowest total returns from February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019.

Figure 3 shows various performance measures of the nine sectors as well as that of the S&P 500 for comparison and Figure 4 plots the performance over time of each sector. Performance between the sectors was all positive, except for stablecoins with a very small negative return. Total returns ranged from 0.00% (stablecoins) to 23.22% (digital content).

Figure 3. Mean daily returns, historical daily volatility, total returns, maximum drawdown, and ex-post Sharpe ratio for each sector from February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019. Smaller maximum drawdowns and more positive Sharpe ratios are more desirable. The Sharpe ratio is calculated with the 10 year US Treasury bill rate as the annual risk-free rate.

Figure 4a. Price performance over time of sectors that had positive total returns between February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019.

Figure 4b. Price performance over time of sectors that had negative total return between February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019.

Figure 5 shows the correlation between the daily returns of each sector. The S&P 500 had little correlation with most cryptocurrency sectors except for stablecoins, which it had a 0.31 correlation with. Resources, consisting of Siacoin (SC) and Golem (GNT), was the least correlated with the others. Correlations between sectors were more varied and less highly positively correlated than observed in previous months.

Figure 5. Correlation between daily returns of each sector from February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

APPENDIX A: Methodology

The daily price data of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from February 28, 2019 to March 28, 2019 was used for our calculations.

The prices are the volume weighted average price of the cryptocurrency in USD at 4:00 PM EST each day across all exchanges where Coinscious has data.

To analyze performance by sector, the prices of constituent cryptocurrencies was normalized by dividing by the price on February 28, 2019, then averaged. When calculating the daily returns using this averaged normalized price, it is equivalent to if each sector was represented as an equally weighted portfolio of its constituent cryptocurrencies formed starting February 28, 2019 and the daily returns of the portfolio were calculated. Returns used throughout this report refer to simple returns.

Daily closing price data of the S&P 500 index from Yahoo Finance was also used as a proxy to represent the US equity market. The latest 10 year US Treasury bill rate from YCharts was used for calculations involving a risk-free rate.

In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX B: Terminology

  • Volatility: A measure of the dispersion in the trading price of an instrument over a certain period of time, defined as the standard deviation of an instrument’s returns.
  • Drawdown: A measure of the decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment since the previous peak during a certain period of time. Less negative, less frequent, and shorter drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Maximum drawdown: The maximum peak to trough decline of the trading price of an instrument or investment over a certain period of time. Less negative maximum drawdowns are more desirable.
  • Sharpe ratio: A risk adjusted measure of return that describes the reward per unit of risk. The reward is the average excess returns of an investment against a benchmark or risk-free rate of return, and the risk is the standard deviation of the excess returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is better. Ex-ante Sharpe ratio is calculated with expected returns whereas ex-post Sharpe ratio is calculated with realized historical returns.
  • Correlation: A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a research report or investment advice. It should not be construed as Coinscious recommending investment in cryptocurrencies or other products or services, or as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Investment in the crypto market entails substantial risk. Before acting on any information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and consult all available material, and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Coinscious and its partners, directors, shareholders and employees may have a position in entities referred to herein or may make purchases and/or sales from time to time, or they may act, or may have acted in the past, as an advisor to certain companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies.

Neither Coinscious or its partners, directors, shareholders or employees shall be liable for any damage, expense or other loss that you may incur out of reliance on any information contained in this report.

Crypto Exchanges: Make It Or Break It

By | News | No Comments

? Ripple Partners with $19 Billion Bank

FRIDAY, MARCH 29, 2019

Ripple Inc., has partnered with India-based commercial bank, Federal Bank to offer blockchain solutions for cross-border remittances. At the moment, it’s unclear whether cryptocurrency will be directly related as fiat to crypto trading is illegal in India. Federal Bank is estimated to be worth $19 billion dollars with access to 8 million customers. 

SOURCE: ETHEREUMWORLDNEWS


? FINMA Affirms Envion AG’s ICO Was Unlawful

FRIDAY, MARCH 29, 2019

Switzerland’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), has found Envion AG‘s ICO launch last July 2018 to be illegal. In their official report, it was discovered that the company accepted funds – in the form of bitcoin, ethereum, and USD – from over 37,000 investors and amounted to over 90 million francs.  

Envion was pitched as decentralized, clean energy for mobile mining units. EVN tokens were issued on cryptocurrency exchanges to its investors. The company has since been taken over by the Swiss Cantonal Court of Zug Switzerland, dissolved and ordered to be liquidated.

SOURCE: BITCOINIST


? CEDEX Secures $50M Worth of Diamonds for ETF

THURSDAY, MARCH 28, 2019

CEDEX, a blockchain-based trading platform, has secured over 6,000 diamonds, worth $50 million dollars, for the launch of its diamond exchange-traded fund (ETF). The platform uses blockchain technology and a proprietary algorithm that allows diamonds to become a tradable asset class like gold, overcoming challenges such as lack of transparency, liquidity and fungibility.

SOURCE: COINDESK


⚡ Zebpay Launches Bitcoin Lightning Network Integration

THURSDAY, MARCH 28, 2019

Zebpay, a Malta-based cryptocurrency exchange, will be the first platform to enable Lightning Network payments for its bitcoin users. Customers worldwide can use their BTC wallet balances through web, iOS, and Android apps to make Lightning transactions. 

SOURCE: DAILYHODL


? Kraken Enforces 2FA and Launches Security Lab

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27, 2019

U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, Kraken, ramps up its security by making two-factor authentication (2FA) mandatory for users. Currently, the two supported options for 2FA are Google Authenticator and YubiKey.

In their official blog post, Chief Security Officer, Nick Percoco, also announced the formation of Kraken Security Labs. The team will be dedicated to enhancing security of their environments and products. 

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


? Trustology Launches iPhone Crypto Wallet

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27, 2019

TrustVault, by Trustology, is now available for download from the Apple UK app store. The new iPhone cryptocurrency vault currently only supports ether but bitcoin and ERC-20 tokens will be added soon.

Unlike current typical cold wallets, it boasts a combination of hardware security modules (HSMs) with verification processes distributed among individuals at secure data centres. Users will be able to access funds within a matter of seconds. 

Trustology was founded by a team of technologists that previously worked at financial institutions including BNY Mellon, RBS, and Barclays. The company closed a seed round of $8 million last year. 

SOURCE: COINDESK


⚡ Huobi’s US Arm To Launch Lending, OTC Trading & Stablecoin

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27, 2019

Huobi Global’s U.S branch, HBUS, is organizing a new team headed by Katelyn Mew to develop solutions for its institutional investors. They will be focusing their time and resources creating services such as token lending, over-the-counter trading, and potential issuance of a Huobi stablecoin. 

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


? DragonEx Crypto Exchange Has Been Hacked

TUESDAY, MARCH 26, 2019

Singapore cryptocurrency exchange, DragonEx, notified its users via Telegram that it suffered a hack. The cyberattack took place on Sunday, March 24 and resulted in theft from users and platform crypto assets. The crypto exchange administrator provided an update identifying 20 wallet addresses to where the stolen assets were transferred to: here

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


? Rakuten Granted License for New Crypto Exchange

TUESDAY, MARCH 26, 2019

Japanese e-commerce giant, Rakuten, has received licenses for its relaunched cryptocurrency exchange, Rakuten Wallet. The license was issued by the country’s Financial Service Agency (FSA), registering it as a virtual currency exchange service provider. Users can sign up for the new service on March 30, 2019

SOURCE: COINDESK


?? Yahoo!-Backed Crypto Exchange to Launch May

TUESDAY, MARCH 26, 2019

Japanese cryptocurrency exchange, Taotao – formerly known as BitARG – is set to launch this May. Taotao is currently 40% owned by a subsidiary of Yahoo! Japan. Taotao will launch two cryptocurrencies on its platform: bitcoin and ethereum. Users will be able to leverage margin positions for ripple, bitcoin cash and litecoin. 

SOURCE: CRYPTOGLOBE


⛓ OKEx Launches New Blockchain Platform & DEX

MONDAY, MARCH 25, 2019

Cryptocurrency exchange, OKEx, announced its latest projects including its new blockchain, OKChain, and decentralized platform, OKDEx.

OKChain is currently in its final stages of development and the testnet is set to launch June 2019. OKEx’s OKB token will start on the ERC-20 blockchain and migrate to the mainnet once it becomes ready. 700 million OKB tokens will be delayed for release between 2020 to 2022.

SOURCE: BITCOINEXCHANGE


? Seed CX Partners with Hydra X To Expand To Asia

MONDAY, MARCH 25, 2019

United States cryptocurrency exchange, Seed CX, has partnered with Hydra X, a Singapore-based FinTech firm, to offer its services in Asia. The integration of Seed CX’s exchange platform with Hydra X’s trading platform, Sigma, will allow users to view prices, trade and monitor their portfolio, as well as gain access to a fiat-cryptocurrency gateway. 

SOURCE: BLOCKTRIBUNE


? eToro Lists Tron

MONDAY, MARCH 25, 2019

eToro, the United Kingdom social trading platform, announced its listing for  Tron (TRX). This announcement comes after the company revealed it is offering its trading service in the United States. The platform currently lists 13 cryptocurrency assets including bitcoin (BTC), ethereum (ETH), ripple (XRP), litecoin (LTC), bitcoin cash (BCH), and stellar (XLM).

SOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH


?  Blockchain Watch: Whale, Hello There

FRIDAY, MARCH 29, 2019
THURSDAY, MARCH 28, 2019
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27, 2019
TUESDAY, MARCH 26, 2019
MONDAY, MARCH 25, 2019

SOURCE: TWITTER


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

Investigating Disruptive Patterns of Crypto Exchanges

By | Coinscious Lab, Data Analytics, Exchange Report | No Comments

Overview

Released monthly, this report aims to analyze and characterize cryptocurrency exchanges according to their volume for the past month, this time from January 16, 2019 to February 16, 2019.

Our universe of analysis uses public exchange data from 18 of some of the most popular exchanges1 (see Figure 1). Through analysis of the recent historical volume and price of individual exchanges we provide a framework for analysis where investors can identify better or fairer exchanges.

Using daily volume data from some of the most widely used cryptocurrency exchanges, we were able to cluster exchanges into three groups based on similarity in volume trends. Some of our findings include the following:

  • Fcoin and HitBTC go against the market both in terms of volume correlation and price-volume correlation.
  • Not only does volume and price seem to go against the market, but returns and volume are positively correlated only for Fcoin and HitBTC, while returns and volume are negatively correlated for the rest of exchanges.
  • Although ZB has reported the biggest traded volume in the past month, ZB volume trend patterns were different from the other top exchanges (Binance, HuobiPro, and OKEx). Generally, it showed a low correlation with the market in terms of traded volume.
  • It is also interesting to note that our analysis (Figure 4b. Top 5 positive correlations) accidentally reveals a shared order book between Upbit and Bittrex.

Performance

Figure 1. Total monthly volume, mean daily volume, max daily volume, mean hourly volume and max hourly volume for each exchange from January 16, 2019 to February 16, 2019 in USD. Monitor exchange performance daily through our Market & Trading Strategy Dashboard: dashboard.coinscious.io

According to the public exchange data, ZB has reported the biggest mean daily and hourly volume for the past month. Binance reportedly lost the crown as the king of cryptocurrency by trade volume on December 11, 2018 to be replaced by OKEx, who held the 1st place at that time, while ZB held 2nd [1].

In the past month, ZB has taken the first spot, with a total of 16 billion dollar traded between January 16th to February 16th, compared to 14 billion USD for OKEx (2nd) and Binance (3rd) (see Figure 1).

We then chose ETH/BTC pair to look at the volume more closely and analyze it in more depth. ZB traded volume for ETH/BTC is low during the whole period, with Binance, HuobiPro and OKEx as top exchanges. However, there was a rapid surge on February 11th, when volume changed from $500,000 USD to $67 million USD in one day, and it has remained high since then (see Figure 2). That same day,  according to Etherscan, daily mining rewards for Ethereum fell to their lowest recorded levels [2].

Figure 2. ETH/BTC pair daily volume for each exchange from January 16, 2019 to February 16, 2019 in USD.

Analysis

In order to categorize exchanges and investigate their trends during the past month, we performed a dimensionality reduction analysis using PCA2 for ETH/BTC pair daily volume. By plotting crypto exchanges according to their first two principal components, we could identify a cluster and some outliers (see Figure 3). The two first principal components explain more than 80% of the variance in our data set and the relative position along the x and y axis indicates similarity between exchanges in terms of traded volume. Thus, exchanges clustered together present similar volume trends, while outliers, namely Okex, HuobiPro, Binance, Fcoin, HitBTC, and ZB, show trends that diverge from the market mean.

Figure 3. PCA Volume analysis for ETH/BTC. The biplot, where the two main principal components are used to represent the exchanges allows us to identify clusters or groups of exchanges that might be correlated according to volume.

To understand the meaning of the two principal components and characterize the outliers, we decided to look at correlation between exchanges using volume for the ETH/BTC pair, to identify a general trend in the market and whether exchanges follow or are against the trend (see Figure 5). Although most exchanges show a similar trends (this is, they follow a similar daily volume trend), Bitflyer, ZB, Zaif, Fcoin, and HitBTC show a daily volume trend that goes against the market.

Figure 4a. Top 5 negative volume correlations

Figure 4b. Top 5 positive volume correlations

Figure 5. Daily volume correlations between exchanges from January 16, 2019 to February 16, 2019 for ETH/BTC. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Fcoin in particular shows negative correlations with all exchanges except for HitBTC. This suggests that Bitflyer, ZB, Zaif, Fcoin, and HitBTC are acting against the market. Moreover, it’s interesting to see that Bitflyer, ZB, Zaif, Fcoin, and HitBTC are all based in Asian countries.

On the other hand, Upbit and Bittrex show the highest correlation for all exchange pairs. This similarity in volume is in line with reports suggesting that they share the same order book, although further analysis of blockchain data will be needed to confirm these claims [3].  

To explore what other factors could contribute to the clustering in different groups after Volume PCA, we calculated the correlation between ETH/BTC price and volume for every exchange pair (see Figure 6).

Figure 6. Daily price-volume correlations between exchanges from January 16, 2019 to February 16, 2019 for ETH/BTC. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Again, Fcoin stands out as the exchange with a highest negative correlation between ETC/BTC price and volume for all exchanges showing that, not only the volume, but ETH price is also against the market3. While most exchanges show a positive trend, with high volumes associated to higher prices, Fcoin shows a negative trend, where higher volumes during the analyzed period are associated with lower prices and vice versa.

This raised suspicions that Fcoin might be manipulating price and volume, especially for the pair that we have analyzed (ETH/BTC). Fcoin has been accused of manipulation in the past. In September, a Chinese investor filed a complaint against the exchange, which presumably induced sudden drops in price through manipulation after investing huge amounts in Fcoin token [4].

Finally, if we look at the correlation between returns (instead of price) and volume for ETH/BTC (Figure 7), HitBTC and Fcoin are again the exchanges going against the general trend. High returns in HitBTC and Fcoin are associated with an increase in volume, while high returns elicit a decrease in volume for the rest of exchanges (negative correlation between returns and volume). Interestingly, HitBTC has also been accused of volume manipulation [5].

Figure 7. Daily returns-volume correlations between exchanges from January 16, 2019 to February 16, 2019 for ETH/BTC. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.

Summary

Using daily volume data from 18 of some of the most widely used cryptocurrency exchanges and principal component analysis, we identified three clusters of exchanges sharing similar volume trends. We mainly looked at volume correlations and price-volume correlations. Our findings include:

  • Fcoin and HitBTC go against the market both in terms of volume correlation and price-volume correlation.
  • Not only volume and price seem to go against the market, but returns and volume are positively correlated only for Fcoin and HitBTC, while returns and volume are negatively correlated for the rest of exchanges.
  • Although ZB has reported the biggest traded volume in the past month, PCA analysis separates it from the other top exchanges (Binance, HuobiPro, and OKEx) and show a low correlation with the market in terms of traded volume.
  • It is also interesting to note that our analysis (Figure 4b Top 5 positive correlations) accidentally reveals a shared orderbook between Upbit and Bittrex

Here, these findings are simple observations of possibly correlated variables. We share this from the point-of-view of something to look out for. Overall, our exchange analysis has proven useful to study patterns of volume and price activity in the market and identify potential manipulation, that could be confirmed using blockchain data.

Footnotes

1 The scope of this report does not cover futures contracts.

2 PCA is a technique that finds underlying variables that best differentiates your data points. In this article, we visualize and analyze along the two dimensions which the data points varies the most (see Appendix B).

3 Here, the market is refers to the trend of majority of the exchanges.

APPENDIX A: Methodology

The daily volume of cryptocurrencies in USD at 4:00 PM EST from January 16, 2019 to February 16, 2019 was used for our volume ranking. Daily volume and price for the pair ethereum_bitcoin was used for the same time period for the PCA analysis and correlation analysis. Price and volume were normalized such that its distribution had mean value 0 and standard deviation of 1 in order to perform principal component analysis and calculate price-volume correlations. In subsequent reports, we may update our universe, sectors, methodology, and analysis to reflect new developments.

APPENDIX B: Terminology

  • Correlation: A measure of the linear relationship between two series of random variables, which in the context of finance, can be two series of returns. Correlation ranges between -1 and 1. Correlation close to 1 indicates a more positive relationship between the pair of cryptocurrency returns and correlation close to -1 indicates a more negative linear relationship. Correlation close to 0 indicates no linear relationship.
  • PCA: A statistical procedure that uses an orthogonal transformation to convert a set of observations of possibly correlated variables into a set of values of linearly uncorrelated variables called principal components, in order to maximize the explained variance.

References

[1] T. (2018, December 11). Binance Losses Top Cryptocurrency Exchange Position to OKEX and ZB.Com. Retrieved from https://coingape.com/

[2] Lavere, M. (2019, February 13). Ethereum (ETH) Mining Reward Hits Lowest Ever.  Retrieved from https://ethereumworldnews.com/

[3] Bitking74. (2017, October 24). UPbit and Bittrex are sharing the same order book. This is a win win for both sides: bring some Korean liquidity to Bittrex, also the Korean users start with nicely filled order books from Bittrex. Go NEO. Neotrader [Online forum]. Retrieved from https://www.reddit.com/r/Neotrader/comments/78fztu/upbit_and_bittrex_are_sharing_the_same_order_book/

[4] J. (2018, September 18). Chinese Investor Loses 700,000 Yuan Due To Fcoin Crypto Manipulation. Retrieved from https://www.coindaily.co/

[5] Sillers, A. (2018, September 12). The evidence of OKex’s fraudulent behavior, which may point to HitBTC as well. Retrieved from https://www.chepicap.com/

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